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In the second half of this year, a significant change in the maritime shipping market is drawing the attention of shippers and freight forwarding companies: While there is no complete shortage of ships and shipping space, the certainty of goods arriving at the port on schedule is becoming increasingly uncertain.

 

航线表现分化：欧洲航线承压最重，美线延误同步扩大

从主要航线看，亚洲出口方向受损尤为明显。9月远东至欧洲航线准班率仅为4%，船舶平均延误达9.9天，为2021年9月以来最差水平。此前疫情冲击期间，该航线准班率曾低至3%。

对依赖中国出口的欧洲货主而言，延误影响已不止于到港时间后移，还可能进一步传导至工厂排产、海外仓库存安排、促销季备货及终端客户交付。

美线方面，9月远东至北美航线准班率维持在20%，但平均延误时间扩大至6.9天，环比增加0.8天。Xeneta指出，中国港口拥堵正逐步向欧美目的港传导，最终体现为海外港口靠泊延误。与此同时，运价端压力同步上升：10月初中国至美国西海岸现货平均运价达7717美元/FEU，较2025年9月的1778美元/FEU上涨逾4倍；长期合同价格升至3649美元/FEU，环比上涨26%。当前货主面临的不仅是运价高企，还包括“已订舱但船期仍可能延误”的不确定性。

From the perspective of major shipping routes, the damage to Asian export destinations is particularly significant. The punctuality rate of the Far East to Europe route in September was only 4%, with an average delay of 9.9 days, the worst level since September 2021. During the period of the previous pandemic shock, the punctuality rate of this route had dropped as low as 3%.

For European shippers who rely on exports to China, the delay impact goes beyond the postponement of arrival time. It may further be transmitted to factory production scheduling, overseas warehouse inventory arrangements, promotional season stock preparation, and end customer delivery.

For the US route, the punctuality rate of the Far East to North America route remained at 20% in September, but the average delay time expanded to 6.9 days, an increase of 0.8 days compared with the previous month. Xeneta pointed out that the congestion at Chinese ports is gradually being transmitted to the ports in Europe and the United States, ultimately manifesting as berthing delays at overseas ports. At the same time, pressure on freight rates has also risen simultaneously: in early October, the average spot freight rate from China to the west coast of the United States was $7,717 per FEU, an increase of more than four times compared to $1,778 per FEU in September 2025; the long-term contract price rose to $3,649 per FEU, an increase of 26% compared with the previous month. Currently, shippers are not only facing high freight rates but also the uncertainty of "having booked shipping but the shipping schedule may still be delayed".

 

对出口企业与货代的操作启示

四季度海运市场的主要风险，已不仅是“能否订到舱位”，更在于“订舱后货物何时能够真正到港”。

对出口企业而言，若产品库存周期短、订单交付时间紧，仅关注海运费已不足以覆盖风险，还需将船公司具体航线准班表现、跳港或改港可能性、目的港拥堵程度及安全库存安排纳入运输计划。

对货代企业而言，应提前向客户说明船期不确定性，完善延误沟通与索赔预案，并在订舱、中转及目的港衔接环节预留更充分的缓冲时间。当前亚洲出口压力尚未完全释放，黄金周后的恢复速度将直接影响四季度供应链的稳定程度。

The main risks in the maritime shipping market in the fourth quarter are no longer merely "whether we can secure shipping space", but rather "when the goods will actually arrive at the port after booking the space".

For export enterprises, if the product inventory cycle is short and the order delivery time is tight, merely focusing on shipping costs is no longer sufficient to cover the risks. They also need to incorporate the specific schedule performance of shipping companies on specific routes, the possibility of port jumps or relocations, the congestion level at the destination port, and the safety inventory arrangement into their transportation plans.

For freight forwarding companies, they should inform customers in advance about the uncertainty of shipping schedules, improve the communication and claim plans for delays, and reserve more sufficient buffer time in the booking, transshipment, and connection at the destination port stages. Currently, the pressure for exports from Asia has not been fully released. The recovery speed after the Golden Week will directly affect the stability of the supply chain in the fourth quarter.

 

 

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